2012 NLDS Preview – San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds

Game Schedule

Game	Teams	Date	Time	TV
1	Reds @ Giants	October 6, 2012	CIN 5 – SF 2
2	Reds @ Giants	October 7, 2012	CIN 9 – SF 0
3	Giants @ Reds	October 9, 2012	SF 2 – CIN 1 F/10
4	Giants @ Reds	October 10, 2012	SF 8 – CIN 3
5	Giants @ Reds	October 11, 2012	SF 6 – CIN 4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*UPDATE: San Francisco Defeats Cincinnati 3 Games to 2, Advances to NLCS.

Team Overview

Team	Record	Avg.	R	HR	ERA	BAA
Cincinnati Reds	97-65	.251	669	172	3.34	.247
San Francisco Giants	94-68	.269	718	103	3.68	.248

 

 

 

 

 

The Giants and the Reds enter their 2012 NLDS matchup with nearly identical records, but how the teams got here couldn’t be any different.  Despite playing in a bandbox of a stadium, the Reds pitching staff had a lower ERA than the highly touted Giants pitchers.  The Giants scored more runs than the Reds, during the regular season, but hit nearly 70 fewer homers than Cincinnati did.  This Giants team knows how to manufacture runs which is a crucial skill when it comes to October MLB Playoff baseball.

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Head to Head

Team	Record	Avg.	R	HR	ERA	BAA
Cincinnati Reds	4-3	.254	28	8	2.63	.258
San Francisco Giants	3-4	.258	21	4	3.69	.254

 

 

 

 

 

The Cincinnati Reds owned the head to head matchup between these two teams this year, by the narrowest of margins.  When facing off against each other, the Reds stats seemed more in line with their overall season stats, than the Giants showed.  The Reds hit .003 better, gave up .7 fewer runs per game, and allowed the Giants to hit .011 better than season average.  The Giants hit .011 lower, essentially produced the same ERA and allowed the Reds to hit .006 better than season averages.  Long story short, the Reds played a little bit better vs. the Giants than they did against the rest of the league, while the opposite seemed to happen for the Giants.  Head to head matchups, while valuable, represent a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, so we take them with a grain of salt when making our predictions.

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2012 NLDS Predictions

The Reds, on paper are a better team than the SF Giants, but the new 2-3 format can really throw a wrench in things, particularly if the lower seeded Giants can win their first two games at home.  They would then only have to win one out of the remaining three on the road to advance to the next round of the MLB playoffs.   It will be extremely important for the Reds to steal a game on the road if they want increase their chances of advancing.  The Giants style of play bodes well for them at home, but they are not built to mash homers with the Reds in Cincinnati.  This series will go the full 5 games, but the Cincinnati Reds will come away with it in the end.